United States Leads the World in Covid-19 Deaths

NEW YORK, May 18 2020 (IPS) – It’s an : the United States leads the world in the number of Covid-19 deaths. As of 15 May, three months after the country’s first confirmed , the US death toll from the pandemic has reached a remarkable . That rising figure is more than double the number of coronavirus deaths of the next highest country, the United Kingdom at .

The pandemic is still in its early stages and many fear is yet to come. Today’s coronavirus mortality picture will no doubt change over time, continuing to evolve and remaining a long-term threat, as the coronavirus spreads death and suffering to populations across the planet.

Among the world’s ten , representing 58 per cent of the world’s population, a strong correlation exists between population size and the total number of annual deaths from all causes.

China and India, for example, represent 18 percent of the world’s population and about 18 percent of the world’s total number of annual deaths. Similarly, the United States population is 4 percent of the world’s population and has about 5 percent of the world’s annual number of deaths

However, the distribution of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic differs greatly from the distribution of the world’s total annual deaths. Whereas the US accounts for 5 percent of the world’s number of annual deaths, the country now has 29 percent of the world’s total Covid-19 deaths. In contrast, China, which accounts for 18 percent of the world’s total number of annual deaths, now has about 2 percent of the world’s total Covid-19 deaths (Figure 1).

Source: United Nations Population Division for population size and annual numbers of deaths; Worldometer for Covid-19 deaths as of 15 May 2020.

If Covid-19 deaths were distributed proportionate to a country’s share of world total annual deaths, a very different picture would emerge. The United States death toll from the pandemic would plummet to a fraction of its current level, from 88,000 to 15,000 and China’s coronavirus deaths would be many times larger than its current level, from 4,600 to 55,000.

If the coronavirus had first emerged in New York City rather than Wuhan, then perhaps one might expect the United States to have experienced a disproportionate share of all pandemic deaths. However, the virus first appeared in China and that country has a comparatively low number of Covid-19 deaths.

So what then is the likely explanation for why America leads the world in Covid-19 deaths?

The high numbers of American Covid-19 deaths appear basically to be the result of Washington’s peculiar response to the pandemic. That response differs markedly from those of countries that have achieved relatively low numbers and rates of coronavirus deaths

Some have chosen to dismiss this question at the outset by discrediting and the statistics relating to the pandemic. Those data, they maintain, are and should be ignored.

Cause of death data, they contend, are with deaths, especially of the elderly, coming from other causes that are often attributed to Covid-19 and at other times Covid-19 deaths are mistakenly attributed to other deaths or . Also, they believe that political considerations are greatly the reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths.

Most observers recognize the of pandemic mortality data and believe that the reported numbers are likely to be of coronavirus deaths. However, they do not find the statistical limitations sufficiently compelling to explain away why the United States leads the world in coronavirus deaths.

The high numbers of American Covid-19 deaths appear basically to be the result of Washington’s to the pandemic. That response differs markedly from those of countries that have achieved relatively low numbers and rates of coronavirus deaths.

At the start of the year, the Washington response began by dismissing , of likely trends and eschewing regarding the expected staggering consequences of a pandemic. It was followed by assurances by the American president that every thing was the country was in than other countries, claims minimizing the impact of the coronavirus, including it is not as perilous as , predictions of an and a by the year’s end.

This initial phase of the White House response was later followed by the of the pandemic and its . Health, medical and mortality concerns and recommendations to address the pandemic became highly .

The pandemic turned to a of “us vs. them”. Some declared that the pandemic was being used as a to bludgeon the president.

Angry , some , and threats of erupted across the country against recommended pandemic mitigation guidelines, including shutdowns, shelter-in-place, quarantines, testing, social distancing and face masking. This was further complicated by rising distrust and that were worsened by coming out of Washington and many state capitals.

When the was declared on 11 March 2020, the number of American deaths was relatively small, slightly below 40. However, the number of grew rapidly, reaching 4,000 by 30 March, 40,000 by 19 April and 80,000 by 9 May (Figure 2).

Source: Estimates from Worldometer and projections by author.

Further complicating matters, the 88,000 coronavirus deaths have been across the American population. Covid-19 has the poor, and .

Many have called for dramatic and speedy in the government’s strategies, programs, , finances, , , and surveillance to confront the continuing spread of the coronavirus. In their view, the government’s policies and programs to confront the pandemic, which is considered , have been plagued by , , , and .

Others consider the calls for changes in strategies and programs as aimed at undermining the current Administration for purposes of political gain, especially with the on the horizon. Media and other inquiries questioning the merits of Washington’s response to the pandemic and challenging the president’s claims of achievements and successes are often viewed as and reflections of personal for the country’s head of state.

While America leads the world with Covid-19 deaths, it does not lead the world in the . To date, approximately eight European countries have higher rates than the United States. For example, the of Italy and Spain is double the rate of the United States.

However, have achieved Covid-19 fatality rates that are a fraction of America’s rate. In Germany and Japan, for example, the Covid- are 96 and 6, respectively, versus 268 in the United States. Other countries with low coronavirus death rates include: Australia, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Hungary, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Poland, Singapore and South Korea.

The total number of coronavirus deaths in the United States will soon hit 100,000, eventually exceeding and is projected to reach more than deaths each day by early June 2020. The American president has said that those numbers of death indicate that the government’s response to the pandemic has been and he’s done a .

As stated at the outset: America leads the world in Covid-19 deaths. Before continuing to advance unfounded, self-congratulatory claims, especially well before the pandemic’s spread is contained, the government in Washington may wish to review and consider adopting, as appropriate, some of the policies and programs of that have been considerably more successful than the United States in reducing the pandemic’s deadly toll.

In doing so, the Administration should rely more heavily on and knowledge-based from medical and public health as a foundation for the government’s overall pandemic policies. That reliance would greatly contribute to developing a vital needed to avoid a feared calamitous of coronavirus deaths, suffering and grief in the coming months that would also in turn for social and economic recovery.

Joseph Chamie is an independent consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division.